What I'm Thinking About

Banker: "Shane, interest rates are going to be low for a while. You should really think about getting that dream house."

Me: "Thanks but I'm good."

While I don't need a house to live my dreams, that's a philosophical discussion and this missive is aimed at the real message in his statement. 

While he works at a bank and presumably has access to all the best of the banks thinking, I doubt he can predict with accuracy what interest rates are going to do in the next five years. On top of that, he's my age, which means he has never lived through what it's like to have real interest rates. 

Interest rates might be low for a while. They might not. I don't know. If I can't predict, what can I do? 

When you can't predict with accuracy, you can position. That means giving up something today to prepare a wider range of outcomes tomorrow. Positioning is always short term suboptimal. The longer your timespan, however, the more optimal it becomes. If you life a long life, it can't help but be the correct stategy. 

Positioning doesn't just apply to mortgages. For example, you can position yourself for the next job at work by learning new skills you don't need today. You can position yourself for living a long life by eating healthy and exercising. You can position your company by keeping cash on hand. 

Positioning doesn't just ensure survival, it affords you the opportunity to periodically take advantage of chaos. Positioning means you're always ready for what's next.